Natural rate of conversion to the new rules

This provides a view of how the proportion of the CSA caseload based on the new scheme rather than the old scheme will increase over time, even without a full conversion.

The ways that cases come under the new scheme

A CSA case will conform to the new rules for 3 main reasons:

1.	*New cases* Cases starting since 3rd March 2003 will start under the new rules. (This includes cases that are considered to be such cases because they were closed then restarted after a period of at least 13 weeks).
2.	*Linked cases* Where a case is started under the new rules, if the PWC is already a PWC of a different case under the old rules, or the NRP is already an NRP of a different case under the old rules, the old case will be converted to the new rules. (A parent cannot have a the same role in 2 cases under different rules).
3.	*Converted cases* At a date (called the "conversion day") in the future, all cases still under old rules will be converted at the next payment date to the new rules (subject to phasing-in where relevant).

This page is restricted to types "1" and "2" - in other words, what will happen before "convesion day"?

Natural conversion

This estimate is simply a month by month picture, starting at the beginning of March 2003 (when there were no cases under the new rules), for up to 3 years after this. It is unlikely that conversion day will be as late as 3 years after 3rd March 2003, but no-one actually knows.

These are the assumptions built into the spreadsheet used to provide this graph.

1.	The starting caseload at 3rd March 2003 is taken as 1,088,000, estimated from the state at November 2002. [3]
2.	The caseload is taken to increase about 15,000 per year. This is estimated from CSA statistics over a number of year. [1] [2] [3]
3.	The number of new cases per year is predicted to be 340,000 per year, based on statements made in Parliament. And the number of closed cases per year is this number minus 15,000, hence leading to the above increase in caseload per year. [4]
4.	20% of new cases are linked to existing cases (old or new). Hollis stated this in Parliament. [5]
5.	Whether the cases that are linked to are old rules (hence converted before conversion day) or are new rules is in the same proportion as the proportion of old to new cases in that month. (This is a plausible assumption to enable the sums to be done, but isn't supported by any evidence).
6.	Whether the cases that are closed in any month are old rules or new rules is in the same proportion as the proportion of old to new cases at the time. (This is an assumption to enable the sums to be done, but isn't supported by any evidence. Furthermore, because it implies that the probability that a case will be closed is independent of its age, it is less plausible than some of the other assumptions, and for the very oldest cases is wrong).

The graph on the right shows the approximate proportion of the total caseload that are under new rules. (If conversion day doesn't occur within the timeframe).

Start of March 2003: 0% (the new scheme started 3rd March)

Start of March 2004: 31%

Start of March 2005: 53%

Start of March 2006: 67%

References

[1]	Child Support Agency - Quarterly Summary Statistics (November 2000)
[2]	Child Support Agency - Quarterly Summary Statistics (November 2001)
[3]	Child Support Agency - Quarterly Summary Statistics (November 2002)
[4]	Response to a Parliamentary Question about the number of new cases per year
[5]	Statement by Baroness Hollis of the percentage of cases linked to new cases


Page last updated: 5 July, 2004	© Copyright Barry Pearson 2003